WTO / GLOBAL TRADE OUTLOOK

05-Oct-2023 00:04:01
The World Trade Organization lowered the 2023 trade growth forecast amid global manufacturing slowdowns. WTO
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STORY: WTO / GLOBAL TRADE OUTLOOK
TRT: 04:01
SOURCE: WTO
RESTRICTIONS: NONE
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH / NATS

DATELINE: 05 OCTOBER 2023, GENEVA, SWITZERLAND
SHOTLIST
1. Wide shot, WTO entrance, student group
2. Close up, WTO entrance, WTO logo
3. Various shots, podiums, speakers
4. SOUNDBITE (English) Ralph Ossa, Chief Economist, World Trade Organization (WTO):
"We have revised our forecast, and this revision includes a substantial but not entirely surprising downgrade to our estimate of world merchandise trade growth this year, lowering it to 0.8% from 1.7 percent in our April forecast."
5. Wide shot, podium
6. SOUNDBITE (English) Ralph Ossa, Chief Economist, World Trade Organization (WTO):
"Several factors combined to dampen trade growth in the first half of 2023. These include persistent inflation and high-interest rates in advanced economies such as the United States and the EU. A weaker than expected rebound from the COVID-19 pandemic and China and continuing aftershocks from the war in Ukraine."
7. Close up, woman typing
8. SOUNDBITE (English) Ralph Ossa, Chief Economist, World Trade Organization (WTO):
"The outlook for 2024 has not been downgraded and remains relatively strong. We anticipate a rebound in the volume of merchandise trade, projecting a growth rate of 3.3 percent, slightly higher than our previous estimate of 3.2 percent. This growth should be driven by increased trade in goods closely linked to the business cycle, such as machinery and consumer durables, which tend to rebound when economic growth stabilizes."
9. Wide shot, audience, interpreters
10. SOUNDBITE (English) Ralph Ossa, Chief Economist, World Trade Organization (WTO):
"The question that's, of course, on many people's minds is how much of the current trade slowdown is due to trade fragmentation, possibly as a result of rising geopolitical tensions, and how much is due to tighter financial conditions, such as countries around the world have raised interest rates to fight inflation."
11. Close up, listeners
12. SOUNDBITE (English) Ralph Ossa, Chief Economist, World Trade Organization (WTO):
" One interesting statistics statistic is the share of intermediate goods and wild trade, which provides an indication of the health and extent of global supply chains. This share fell to 48.5 percent in the first half of 2023, compared to an average of 51.0 percent over the previous three years. This suggests that supply chains might be contracting, but it could also simply reflect higher commodity prices."
13. Close up, woman typing
14. SOUNDBITE (English) Ralph Ossa, Chief Economist, World Trade Organization (WTO):
"While we see first signs of fragmentation, there is still no evidence of any broad-based de-globalization."
15. Mid shot, interpreters' booths
16. SOUNDBITE (English) Coleman Nee, Senior Economist, World Trade Organization (WTO):
"There has been some concern that slower Chinese growth might weigh down world trade through weaker import demand. This might happen if China's economic slowdown worsens, but so far, this has not been the case. China actually contributed 0.3 percentage points to trade volume growth in the first half of 2023, while the U.S. and EU respectively subtracted 0.6 and 0.5 percentage points."
17. Mid shot, listeners
18. SOUNDBITE (English) Coleman Nee, Senior Economist, World Trade Organization (WTO):
"Trade in manufactures overall is down 4 percent while services is providing some lift to global trade. It was up 9 percent in the first quarter."
19. Various shots, podium, listeners, journalists
STORYLINE
The World Trade Organization (WTO) lowered the 2023 trade growth forecast amid global manufacturing slowdowns.

Projections for growth in global merchandise trade in 2023 have been scaled back by WTO economists amid a continued slump that began in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to the latest WTO trade forecast released on 5 October.

The volume of world merchandise trade is now expected to grow by 0.8 percent this year, less than half the 1.7 percent increase forecasted in April.

The 3.3 percent growth projected for 2024 remains nearly unchanged from the previous estimate.
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