WTO / 2023 GLOBAL TRADE OUTLOOK

05-Apr-2023 00:04:52
Global trade growth in 2023 is still expected to be subpar despite a slight upgrade to GDP projections since last fall, WTO economists said in a new forecast. WTO
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STORY: WTO / 2023 Global Trade Outlook
TRT: 4:51
SOURCE: WTO
RESTRICTIONS: NONE
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH / NATS

DATELINE: 05 APRIL 2023, GENEVA, SWITZERLAND
SHOTLIST
1. Pan up, wide shot, WTO headquarters exterior
2. Wide shot, left to right, WTO exterior
3. Close-up, WTO entrance
4. Pan down, logo WTO
5. Wide shot, panelists
6. SOUNDBITE (English): Ralph Ossa, WTO Chief Economist:
"The outlook for the global economy has slightly improved since our last forecast, but the pace of trade expansion in 2023 is still expected to be subpar. So, we are now projecting a merchandise trade volume growth of 1.7percent in 2023."
7. SOUNDBITE (English) Ralph Ossa, WTO Chief Economist:
"Goods trade was remarkably resilient for most of 2022, despite the very challenging macro environment during the first three quarters of 2022 year on year trade volume growth actually averaged 4.3percent. But an abrupt decline in the fourth quarter then dragged growth down for the year to 2.7percent."
8. SOUNDBITE (English) Ralph Ossa, WTO Chief Economist:
"The downside risks to the forecast include the vulnerabilities that have been revealed in the banking sector of late, and it appears that these recent banking failures in the U.S. and Europe have been mostly contained. But rapidly increasing interest rates could create further strains in financial markets. That then could, of course, also have implications for international trade. But there's also some upside potential, particularly from the relaxation of COVID 19 restrictions in China, particularly for services such as travel and transport. And of course, a peaceful end to the war in Ukraine and a reduction in broader geopolitical tensions would also greatly improve the outlook for the global economy."
9. SOUNDBITE (English): Barbara D'Andrea Adrian, WTO Senior Statistician:
"The fact is that trade in digitally delivered services is booming. According to our estimates, global export reached $3.82 trillion in 2022. And what is impressive about these services is the pace of growth. An almost fourfold increase in value since 2005."
10. SOUNDBITE (English) Barbara D'Andrea Adrian, WTO Senior Statistician:
"Digitally delivered services accounted for 54percent of global services trade. And what is more interesting is that they account for a fast-growing share of total trade, meaning goods and services together, which we estimated at 12percent for 2022 from 8percent just a decade ago. And this gives us a clear signal that the future of trade is services and it is digital."
11. SOUNDBITE (English) Coleman Nee, WTO Senior Economist:
"Global GDP is expected to return to more normal levels and trade growth is expected to rebound in line with that. The rebound is slightly stronger, but that's just part of the nature of trade. Trade tends to be more volatile. So, when world GDP increases, trade tends to increase more. When world GDP declines, trade tends to move in the same direction, but just more so. So you get a kind of a whipsaw effect."
12. Close-up, listening shot Ralph Ossa
13. Wide shot, zoom in, panelists
14. Wide shot, left to right, press conference room with journalists
15. Med shot, journalists
16. Close-up, attendee reading report
17. Close-up, journalist typing
18. Close-up, journalist marking report
19. Wide shot, panelists
20. Close-up, journalist taking notes
21. Med shot, journalists
STORYLINE
Global trade growth in 2023 is still expected to be subpar despite a slight upgrade to GDP projections since last fall, WTO economists said in a new forecast.

According to the 2023 Global Trade Outlook, released on Wednesday (5 Apr), weighed down by the effects of the war in Ukraine, stubbornly high inflation, tighter monetary policy and financial market uncertainty, the volume of world merchandise trade is expected to grow by 1.7 percent this year, following 2.7 percent growth in 2022, a smaller-than-expected increase that was pulled down by a sharp slump in the fourth quarter.

According to WTO estimates, global exports of digitally delivered services recorded an almost fourfold increase in value since 2005. Digitally delivered services exports continued to rise, reaching US$ 3.82 trillion in 2022, and representing a 54 percent share in total global services exports.
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