UN / POPULATION PROSPECTS 2019

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17-Jun-2019 00:01:50
The world’s population is expected to increase by two billion persons in the next 30 years, from 7.7 billion currently to 9.7 billion in 2050, according to a new United Nations report launched today. UNIFEED

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STORY: UN / POPULATION PROSPECTS 2019
TRT: 1:50
SOURCE: UNIFEED
RESTRICTIONS: NONE
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH / NATS

DATELINE: 17 JUNE 2019, NEW YORK CITY

SHOTLIST:

FILE - NEW YORK CITY

1. Wide shot, UNHQ exterior

17 JUNE 2019, NEW YORK CITY

2. Wide shot, press room
3. Wide shot, journalists
4. SOUNDBITE (English) John Wilmoth, Director, Population Division, United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs:
“From an estimated two and a half billion people in 1950, the global population has grown more than threefold and now numbers around 7.7 billion. Using demographic and statistical methods, we have projected the global population forward to 2100. Our latest projections indicate that growth will continue, and that the global population should number around 9.7 billion in 2050 and 10.9 billion 2100.
5. Wide shot, dais
6. SOUNDBITE (English) John Wilmoth, Director, Population Division, United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs:
“Just as significant as the increase in numbers, is the fact that the global population is aging. Across the globe, the distribution of population by age is shifting upward from younger to older ages. Understanding and anticipating these changes, both the growth and the aging of the human population, are extremely important as the world seeks to set a path towards sustainable development.”
7. Wide shot, journalists
8. SOUNDBITE (English) John Wilmoth, Director, Population Division, United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs:
“Nevertheless, one feature that all of the current scenarios have in common is a continuing slowdown in the pace of population growth from now until 2100. According to the projections being released today, it seems plausible that the world population could reach its peak around 2100 at a level of nearly 11 billion people. However, that outcome is not certain and in the end the peaking could come earlier or later at a lower or higher level of total population.”
9. Wide shot, press room

STORYLINE:

The world’s population is expected to increase by two billion persons in the next 30 years, from 7.7 billion currently to 9.7 billion in 2050, according to a new United Nations report launched today.

‘The World Population Prospects 2019: Highlights’, which is published by the Population Division of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, provides a comprehensive overview of global demographic patterns and prospects.

John Wilmoth, Director of the Population Division at UN DESA said the global population has grown “more than threefold” adding that the projections indicate that growth would continue, and that the global population should number around 9.7 billion in 2050 and 10.9 billion 2100.

Wilmoth highlighted the inherent uncertainty surrounding all future population projection trends. He said the latest projection found that the world population should lay between 9.4 and 10.1 billion in 2050, and between 9.4 and 12.7 billion in 2100, adding that his Department was fairly certain of the 2050 numbers.

Wilmoth added, “Nevertheless, one feature that all of the current scenarios have in common is a continuing slowdown in the pace of population growth from now until 2100. According to the projections being released today, it seems plausible that the world population could reach its peak around 2100 at a level of nearly 11 billion people. However, that outcome is not certain and in the end the peaking could come earlier or later at a lower or higher level of total population.”

The report also confirmed that the world’s population is growing older due to increasing life expectancy and falling fertility levels, and that the number of countries experiencing a reduction in population size is growing. UN DESA said the resulting changes in the size, composition and distribution of the world’s population have important consequences for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the globally agreed targets for improving economic prosperity and social well-being while protecting the environment.

SOUNDBITE (English) John Wilmoth, Director, Population Division, United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs:
“Just as significant as the increase in numbers, is the fact that the global population is aging. Across the globe, the distribution of population by age is shifting upward from younger to older ages. Understanding and anticipating these changes, both the growth and the aging of the human population, are extremely important as the world seeks to set a path towards sustainable development.”

The new population projections indicate that nine countries will make up more than half the projected growth of the global population between now and 2050: India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, the United Republic of Tanzania, Indonesia, Egypt and the United States of America (in descending order of the expected increase). Around 2027, India is projected to overtake China as the world’s most populous country. The population of sub-Saharan Africa is also projected to double by 2050.

In most of sub-Saharan Africa, and in parts of Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean, recent reductions in fertility have caused the population at working ages, 25 to 64 years, to grow faster than at other ages, creating an opportunity for accelerated economic growth thanks to a favourable population age distribution. UN DESA said governments should invest in education and health, especially for young people, and create conditions conducive to sustained economic growth to benefit from this demographic dividend.

The study found that life expectancy at birth for the world, which increased from 64.2 years in 1990 to 72.6 years in 2019, is expected to increase further to 77.1 years in 2050. While considerable progress has been made in closing the longevity differential between countries, large gaps remain. In 2019, life expectancy at birth in the least developed countries lags 7.4 years behind the global average, due largely to persistently high levels of child and maternal mortality, as well as violence, conflict and the continuing impact of the HIV epidemic.

The publication noted that one in six people in the world will be over age 65 by 2050, up from one in 11 in 2019, adding that one in four persons living in Europe and Northern America could be aged 65 or over. In 2018, for the first time in history, persons aged 65 or above outnumbered children under five years of age globally. The number of persons aged 80 years or over is also projected to triple, from 143 million in 2019 to 426 million in 2050.

The study also found that a growing number of countries are experiencing a reduction in population size. Since 2010, 27 countries or areas have experienced a reduction of one percent or more caused by sustained low levels of fertility. The impact of low fertility on population size is reinforced in some locations by high rates of emigration. Between 2019 and 2050, populations are projected to decrease by one percent or more in 55 countries or areas, of which 26 may see a reduction of at least ten percent. In China, for example, the population is projected to decrease by 31.4 million, or around 2.2 per cent, between 2019 and 2050.

UN DESA said, between 2010 and 2020, 14 countries or areas would see a net inflow of more than one million migrants, while ten countries would see a net outflow of similar magnitude. Some of the largest migratory outflows are driven by the demand for migrant workers, such as Bangladesh, Nepal and the Philippines, or by violence, insecurity and armed conflict, including Myanmar, Syria and Venezuela. Belarus, Estonia, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Japan, the Russian Federation, Serbia and Ukraine will experience a net inflow of migrants over the decade, helping to offset population losses caused by an excess of deaths over births.

The report includes updated population estimates from 1950 to the present for 235 countries or areas, based on detailed analyses of all available information about the relevant historical demographic trends. The latest assessment uses the results of 1,690 national population censuses conducted between 1950 and 2018, as well as information from vital registration systems and from 2,700 nationally representative sample surveys. The 2019 revision also presents population projections from the present until 2100, depicting a range of possible or plausible outcomes at the global, regional and country levels.
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