UN / POPULATION

13-Jun-2013 00:02:22
The current world population of 7.2 billion is projected to increase by 1 billion over the next 12 years and reach 9.6 billion by 2050, according to a United Nations report launched today (13 June), which points out that growth will be mainly in developing countries, with more than half in Africa. UNTV
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STORY: UN / POPULATION
TRT: 2.22
SOURCE: UNTV
RESTRICTIONS: NONE
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH/ NATS

DATELINE: 13 SEPTEMBER 2011, NEW YORK CITY / FILE
SHOTLIST
FILE – RECENT, NEW YORK CITY

1. Wide shot, exterior United Nations headquarters

13 SEPTEMBER 2011, NEW YORK CITY

2. Med shot, dais
3. Pan right, audience
4. SOUNDBITE (English) John Wilmoth, Director of Population Division:
“The world’s population is now estimated at around 7.2 billion. By 2025 there could be 8.1 billion people on this planet and by 2050 as many as 9.6 billion. Trends in future population will be affected by the trajectories of its three major components, fertility, mortality and migration, but especially by the future course of fertility.”
5. Med shot, journalists
6. SOUNDBITE (English) John Wilmoth, Director of Population Division:
“Our new projections of future population have been revised upward. For comparison, our median variant projection of world population in the year 2050 has increased from 9.3 to 9.6 billion, and for 2100 from 10.1 to 10.9 billion.”
7. Med shot, journalists
8. SOUNDBITE (English) John Wilmoth, Director of Population Division:
“Even though demography is not destiny, these new population estimates and projections highlight the pressures that some governments are facing now and will continue to face in the future with regard to population growth in some cases and population ageing, and even possible decline in others.”
9. Med shot, journalists
10. SOUNDBITE (English) John Wilmoth, Director of Population Division:
“The world has had a great experience of dealing with rapid population growth. World population doubled between 1960 and 2000, roughly. World food supply more than doubled over that time period. We have been successful in the past in addressing concerns around rapid population growth by feeding the population in particular. However, that will be challenging moving forward, to continue that pace of increase in food production. Likewise it will be challenging for countries like Japan that are watching their population age so rapidly. So the problem is more one of extremes.”
11. Med shot, journalists
12. Zoom out, end of press conference
STORYLINE
The current world population of 7.2 billion is projected to increase by 1 billion over the next 12 years and reach 9.6 billion by 2050, according to a United Nations report launched today (13 June), which points out that growth will be mainly in developing countries, with more than half in Africa.

John Wilmoth, the Director of the Population Division in the UN’s Department of Economic and Social Affairs, during a press conference in New York said “trends in future population will be affected by the trajectories of its three major components, fertility, mortality and migration, but especially by the future course of fertility.”

Wilmoth said projections of future population “have been revised upward” with an increase in the median variant projection of world population in the year 2050 from 9.3 to 9.6 billion, and from 10.1 to 10.9 billion for 2100.

The new projected total population is higher mainly due to new information obtained on fertility levels of certain countries. For example, in 15 high-fertility countries of sub-Saharan Africa, the estimated average number of children per woman has been adjusted upwards by more than 5 per cent.

The report, World Population Prospects: the 2012 Revision, notes that the population of developed regions will remain largely unchanged at around 1.3 billion from now until 2050. In contrast, the 49 least developed countries are projected to double in size from around 900 million people in 2013 to 1.8 billion in 2050.

Wilmoth added that changes in fertility rates over the next few decades could have major consequence for population size, structure and distribution in the long run.

Stressing that “demography is not destiny,” he said these new population estimates and projections “highlight the pressures that some governments are facing now and will continue to face in the future with regard to population growth in some cases and population ageing, and even possible decline in others.”

He said that while the world “has had a great experience of dealing with rapid population growth” there will be challenges moving forward to continue the pace of increase in food production.

Likewise, he said, “it will be challenging for countries like Japan that are watching their population age so rapidly.”

He added that the problem is “one of extremes.”

The report notes that India is expected to become the world’s largest country, passing China around 2028, when both countries will have populations of 1.45 billion. After that, India’s population will continue to grow and China’s is expected to start decreasing. Meanwhile, Nigeria’s population is expected to surpass that of the United States before 2050.

Europe’s population is projected to decline by 14 per cent, the report states, and Wilmoth warned that the continent is already facing challenges in providing care and support for a rapidly aging population.

Overall, life expectancy is projected to increase in developed and developing countries in future years. At the global level, it is projected to reach 76 years in the period 2045-2050 and 82 years in 2095-2100. By the end of the century, people in developed countries could live on average around 89 years, compared to about 81 years in developing regions.

The report’s figures are based on a comprehensive review of available demographic data from 233 countries and areas around the world, including the 2010 round of population censuses.
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