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 11 February 2010
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WHO hopes flu pandemic has peaked

11/02/2010

The World Health Organization says it hopes that the worst of the H1N1 flu pandemic is over. Dr. Keiji Fukuda, WHO's pandemic influenza chief, said the committee, which deals with this, would decide by the end of the month whether the H1N1 pandemic declared in June has entered a post-peak phase.

Dr. Keiji Fukuda

Dr. Keiji Fukuda

"The post-peak period can be considered a transitional period in which the pandemic is continuing, but there is a scientific judgment that the worst on a global level is probably over, even though there may be some local outbreaks occurring or local upsurges."

A transition phase means that the pandemic is continuing, but the overall trend is back toward seasonal patterns of influenza. Dr Fukuda said announcing this should help national health authorities look to the future.

Even if WHO decides the pandemic has peaked, he emphasized, the virus remains active, causing disease and death, and could continue to flare up in some regions, as it has done recently in West Africa.

Laboratory-confirmed deaths from the pandemic total more than 15,000, but according to Dr. Fukuda, the real toll, which will not be established for a year or two, is likely to be much higher.

Bissera Kostova, United Nations.

(duration: 1'17")

Sound bites

Dr. Keiji Fukuda

"The post-peak period can be considered a transitional period in which the pandemic is continuing, but there is a scientific judgment that the worst on a global level is probably over, even though there may be some local outbreaks occurring or local upsurges."
Duration: 00:00:16

Dr. Keiji Fukuda on composition of next flu vaccine

The current pandemic virus, the H1N1 virus is by far the most common virus being isolated for influenza viruses around the world. It shows no signs of disappearing and there is a very good bet that we can expect to see this virus around for quite a while. So I think it is easy to guess that the experts will really be looking at this virus as one of the viruses the vaccine has to protect against.
Duration: 30"

Dr. Keiji Fukuda

Now, in terms of the controversy about whether this is a drummed-up pandemic, our perspective and our position is very clear. This is a very well documented phenomenon in which a new influenza virus, which originated from animal influenza viruses became infectious for people and spread around the world. It was really associated with epidemiologic patterns, such as high levels of summer infections that we don't typically see and it also led to patterns of death and illness that we don't normally see. So for example, most of the deaths have occurred in younger age groups. Many of the severe illnesses and deaths have occurred in people such as pregnant women and people with chronic diseases in younger age groups. And so these are all very different from what we have seen with seasonal influenza.
Duration: 60"