Global growth projected to remain subdued: IMFListen /
The global economy is growing more slowly than expected, with risks to that growth increasing especially in emerging markets, says the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in an update to its World Economic Outlook (WEO).
The IMF says global growth is now projected at 3.1 for 2013 and 3.8 percent for 2014, a downward revision of ¼ percentage point each year compared with the forecasts in the April 2013 WEO.
Global growth increased only slightly in the first quarter of 2013, instead of accelerating further as expected at the time of the April 2013 World Economic Outlook. The IMF says the underperformance was due to continuing growth disappointments in major emerging market economies, a deeper recession in the euro area, and a slower U.S. expansion than expected. By contrast, growth was stronger than expected in Japan.
Looking ahead, the IMF expects the brakes behind the recent underperformance to ease, but only gradually. Growth in the United States is forecast to rise from 1¾ percent in 2013 to 2¾ percent in 2014, as fiscal consolidation slows and private demand remains solid
In Japan, growth in 2013 is now expected to be 2 percent, up ½ percent from the last WEO, reflecting the boost to confidence and private demand from recent accommodative policies.
The euro area is forecast to remain in recession in 2013 before growing again in 2014..
Growth in emerging market and developing economies is expected to moderate to 5 percent in 2013 and about 5½ percent in 2014.
In China, growth will average 7¾ percent in 2013–14, ¼ and ½ percentage point lower in 2013 and 2014, respectively, than in the April 2013 forecast.
Donn Bobb, United Nations.